Solar payback after the federal tax credit: 22 US cities compared
The 30% federal credit is gone for home systems placed in service after December 31, 2025 (IRS). I recalculated payback for a typical 7 kW home system at today's quotes in every city Solar Hank covers.
Key findings
- Chula Vista, CA is the fastest: even with exports counted at $0, a 7 kW system pays back in at most 6.4 years, because San Diego Gas & Electric charges 46.5¢ per kWh.
- Payback now runs 7.3 to 13.3 years in the 16 city–utility pairs with a single export rate: fastest in Yonkers, NY (Consolidated Edison Co of New York), slowest in Chandler, AZ (Salt River Project).
- Losing the credit adds a median 3.9 years to payback (range 2.2–4.3), at the same prices.
- Sunshine is not what decides it. Tucson, AZ panels make 1,788 kWh per kW a year against 1,318 in Yonkers, NY, yet pay back in 11.9 years against 7.3. The difference is what the utility pays for exported power: 5.1¢ per kWh for Tucson Electric Power against 27.9¢ for Consolidated Edison Co of New York.
- In 8 California cities there is no single payback: under the state's Net Billing Tariff exports earn hourly values. Counting only the power used at home and giving exports $0, payback is at most 6.4 years in Chula Vista, CA and 8.9 in Clovis, CA.
Payback by city, 7 kW system, no federal credit
| City | Utility | kWh per kW a year | Energy charge | Export credit | Quote, $/W | Savings a year | Payback, years | If the 30% credit applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yonkers, NY | Consolidated Edison Co of New York | 1,318 | 27.9¢ | 27.9¢ | $2.68 | $2,572 | 7.3 | 5.1 |
| New York, NY | Consolidated Edison Co of New York | 1,353 | 27.9¢ | 27.9¢ | $2.76 | $2,641 | 7.3 | 5.1 |
| Austin, TX | Austin Energy | 1,483 | 15.9¢ | 9.9¢ | $2.25 | $1,342 | 8.8 | 5.2 |
| Toms River, NJ | Jersey Central Power & Light | 1,376 | 19.5¢ | 19.5¢ | $2.54 | $1,881 | 9.5 | 6.6 |
| Elizabeth, NJ | Public Service Electric & Gas | 1,331 | 16.8¢ | 16.8¢ | $2.66 | $1,568 | 11.9 | 8.3 |
| Tucson, AZ | Tucson Electric Power | 1,788 | 14.8¢ | 5.1¢ | $2.26 | $1,244 | 11.9 | 8.1 |
| Surprise, AZ | Arizona Public Service | 1,785 | 14.1¢ | 5.6¢ | $2.25 | $1,225 | 12.0 | 8.2 |
| Peoria, AZ | Arizona Public Service | 1,771 | 14.1¢ | 5.6¢ | $2.27 | $1,215 | 12.3 | 8.3 |
| Scottsdale, AZ | Arizona Public Service | 1,745 | 14.1¢ | 5.6¢ | $2.25 | $1,197 | 12.3 | 8.4 |
| Phoenix, AZ | Arizona Public Service | 1,755 | 14.1¢ | 5.6¢ | $2.28 | $1,204 | 12.4 | 8.4 |
| Glendale, AZ | Salt River Project | 1,754 | 15.0¢ | 3.5¢ | $2.23 | $1,131 | 12.9 | 8.8 |
| Tempe, AZ | Salt River Project | 1,752 | 15.0¢ | 3.5¢ | $2.23 | $1,130 | 12.9 | 8.8 |
| Scottsdale, AZ | Salt River Project | 1,745 | 15.0¢ | 3.5¢ | $2.25 | $1,125 | 13.1 | 8.9 |
| Gilbert, AZ | Salt River Project | 1,750 | 15.0¢ | 3.5¢ | $2.26 | $1,128 | 13.1 | 8.9 |
| Phoenix, AZ | Salt River Project | 1,755 | 15.0¢ | 3.5¢ | $2.28 | $1,131 | 13.2 | 9.0 |
| Chandler, AZ | Salt River Project | 1,753 | 15.0¢ | 3.5¢ | $2.29 | $1,130 | 13.3 | 9.0 |
Cities without a single export rate: payback at most
| City | Utility | kWh per kW a year | Energy charge | Quote, $/W | Savings a year, self-use only | Payback, at most |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chula Vista, CA | San Diego Gas & Electric | 1,728 | 46.5¢ | $2.57 | $2,811 | 6.4 |
| San Diego, CA | San Diego Gas & Electric | 1,716 | 46.5¢ | $2.56 | $2,792 | 6.4 |
| Oceanside, CA | San Diego Gas & Electric | 1,698 | 46.5¢ | $2.56 | $2,762 | 6.5 |
| Carlsbad, CA | San Diego Gas & Electric | 1,669 | 46.5¢ | $2.56 | $2,715 | 6.6 |
| Bakersfield, CA | Pacific Gas & Electric | 1,684 | 36.6¢ | $2.56 | $2,159 | 8.3 |
| San Jose, CA | Pacific Gas & Electric | 1,624 | 36.6¢ | $2.52 | $2,082 | 8.5 |
| Fresno, CA | Pacific Gas & Electric | 1,654 | 36.6¢ | $2.70 | $2,121 | 8.9 |
| Clovis, CA | Pacific Gas & Electric | 1,659 | 36.6¢ | $2.71 | $2,127 | 8.9 |
Not in the tables: San Antonio. The utility nets exports against use month by month, so payback depends on your monthly use; the city page has the details.
How I calculated it
- System: 7 kW, half of production used at home, half exported.
- Production: NREL PVWatts v8 for each city's coordinates.
- Energy charge: median standard residential plan in the OpenEI Utility Rate Database, or the EIA state average where plans are bundled.
- Export credit: each utility's tariff or state rule, checked by hand; the date is on each city page.
- Price: each city's average quote per watt from EnergySage.
- Credits: state credits and utility rebates included (Arizona's 25% credit up to $1,000, Austin Energy's rebate). The "if the 30% credit applied" column subtracts 30% of the same price, for comparison only.
- Not included: rate increases, panel degradation, financing, fixed charges and taxes. Full method on the methodology page.
Use this data
Download the table: solar-payback-by-city-2026.csv. You may republish the numbers with a link to this page. Suggested citation: Solar Hank, "Solar payback after the federal tax credit: 22 US cities compared," 2026, solarhank.com/research/solar-payback-by-city-2026/.
Run your own numbers
Enter your ZIP and monthly bill to see payback for your own utility and roof.
Keep reading
- How much solar panels cost in 2026 — Average price per watt by state and city, and what a 5, 7 or 10 kW system costs before incentives.
- Is solar worth it in 2026? — Payback without the federal credit in the cities I cover, and when solar is a weak deal.
- How much solar panels save — Yearly and monthly savings by utility, and why they change from month to month.
Installer records by city: solar companies in Phoenix, solar companies in Tucson, solar companies in San Antonio, solar companies in Austin, solar companies in San Diego, solar companies in Fresno, solar companies in Chandler, solar companies in Scottsdale, solar companies in Gilbert, solar companies in Glendale, solar companies in Tempe, solar companies in Peoria, solar companies in Surprise, solar companies in San Jose, solar companies in Bakersfield, solar companies in Clovis, solar companies in Chula Vista, solar companies in Oceanside, solar companies in Carlsbad, solar companies in Toms River, solar companies in New York, solar companies in Elizabeth, solar companies in Yonkers.
Updated 2026-09-22.