Is solar worth it in 2026?
Solar lost its 30% federal credit this year. Here's what that does to payback, and how to tell if it still makes sense for your home.
It can be, but it pays back slower than older articles say. At today's average quotes, a 7 kW system pays back in about 12–14 years in the cities I cover where the utility has a single export rate, with no federal credit. Solar is worth it when you plan to stay in the home, your rate is high, most of the power is used at home or exports are credited well, and the roof gets full sun.
Payback in 2026, city by city
7 kW system at each city's average quote, half the power used at home and half exported, state credits and utility rebates included:
| City | Utility | Price | Credits and rebates | Savings a year | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | Arizona Public Service | $15,960 | $1,000 | $1,204 | 12.4 years |
| Phoenix | Salt River Project | $15,960 | $1,000 | $1,131 | 13.2 years |
| Tucson | Tucson Electric Power | $15,820 | $1,000 | $1,244 | 11.9 years |
| Austin | Austin Energy | $15,750 | $4,000 | $865 | 13.6 years |
Fresno, San Antonio, San Diego: the utility credits exports at hourly or avoided-cost values, so there is no single payback; use the calculator with your bill. Assumptions on the methodology page.
When solar is usually worth it
- You'll stay in the home at least as long as the payback, ideally longer.
- Your electricity is expensive. Each kWh you make and use at home saves your full energy charge.
- Exports earn a fair credit, or you use most of the power as it's made (air conditioning in the afternoon, an EV charged by day).
- A sunny, unshaded roof that won't need replacing soon.
- You buy the system with cash or a low-rate loan and keep the savings.
When it's a weak deal
- You rent, or expect to sell within a few years.
- Your energy charge is low and exports earn little, so each kWh saves only a few cents.
- Heavy shade or a roof that needs replacing first.
- A lease or PPA with yearly price increases that eat the savings.
- A quote whose savings still subtract a 30% federal credit — it is not available for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025 (IRS).
How to check it for your home
- Get your yearly kWh and energy charge from your bill.
- Estimate size and cost for your ZIP in the calculator.
- Get two or three quotes and compare price per watt with local averages.
- Compare payback with the panel and inverter warranty years written in the quote.
Run your own numbers
Enter your ZIP and monthly bill to see payback for your utility, without the expired federal credit.
Keep reading
- How much solar panels cost in 2026 — Average price per watt by state and city, and what a 5, 7 or 10 kW system costs before incentives.
- How much solar panels save — Yearly and monthly savings by utility, and why they change from month to month.
- Disadvantages of solar panels — Nine downsides to weigh before you sign, with numbers from real tariffs.
Updated 2026-09-15.